The 2020s: The Geopolitical and Economic Shifts That Will Shape Your Future – Biden vs. Trump, An Unbiased Review
- Brandon
- Jan 8
- 9 min read
Updated: Feb 23
Analyzing the Key Global Transformations and Leadership Choices Defining the Decade
As we settle into the 2020s, it’s crucial to consider how the actions and decisions of the past two U.S. Presidents—Donald Trump and Joe Biden—will impact the economy and financial landscape moving forward. Whether you're an investor, a working parent, or a young adult trying to understand what lies ahead, the effects of these administrations are shaping everything from your paycheck to global economic stability
Why Does This Matter to You?
The policies of Trump and Biden aren’t just political—they're affecting things like inflation, job opportunities, the stock market, and global trade. Whether you’re trying to save for the future, dealing with rising costs, or watching the world of international trade change, the economic and geopolitical landscape will shape your life for years to come. In this article, we’ll explore the key economic policies under Trump and Biden, including their effects on the stock market, inflation, global trade, and your family budget. These policies aren't just theoretical—they impact your paycheck. Understanding the economic and geopolitical trends shaping the world today is essential for navigating this complex environment.
Trump Administration (2017-2021): Short-Term Growth, Long-Term Risks - 2020s Geopolitical and Economic Shifts
The Good:
Economic Boom (Pre-COVID): Under Trump, the economy saw significant growth, thanks to tax cuts (especially for corporations) and deregulation. The stock market was strong, unemployment hit a historic low (3.5% in 2019), and businesses flourished. For average families, this translated into more job opportunities, higher wages, and a thriving economy. Investors were bullish, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 60% during his first three years in office.
Trade Wars and "America First": Trump's hardline stance on trade, especially with China, led to tariffs, which he argued were necessary to protect American workers. His renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA was also seen as a win for U.S. labor.
The Bad:
Pandemic Economic Collapse: Enter COVID-19, and the economy took a nosedive. While Trump pushed for a quick reopening, the economic fallout was immense, and unemployment soared to over 14%. The stock market crashed and later recovered with stimulus programs, but the long-term economic instability cannot be overlooked.
Debt and Deficits: While tax cuts were a short-term win, they increased the national debt. Trump’s cuts didn’t fully pay for themselves through growth, and this may lead to future economic challenges—like inflation or increased taxes.
Biden Administration (2021-Present): Recovery, Inflation, and Political Stalemate:
The Good:
COVID-19 Recovery (Vaccine Rollout & Stimulus): Biden inherited the COVID-19 crisis, and his administration quickly ramped up vaccine distribution, getting millions vaccinated. The American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion package, provided direct stimulus checks, extended unemployment benefits, and supported local governments. This helped families weather the economic storm in 2021 and gave consumers more spending power, fueling economic growth in 2022. These actions were part of broader economic and geopolitical trends shaping the world today, with Biden focusing on both domestic recovery and maintaining global stability.
Infrastructure Investments: Biden passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill in 2021, focused on rebuilding roads, bridges, and expanding broadband. This could set the stage for stronger long-term economic growth, especially in sectors like construction and clean energy.
Focus on Clean Energy and Jobs: With a heavy focus on clean energy (such as solar and electric vehicles), Biden’s administration is aiming to shift the U.S. economy toward a greener future, creating jobs in the process. As environmental issues continue to shape global markets, these investments could pay off in the future.
The Bad:
Rising Inflation: Inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, reaching levels not seen in decades. Rising prices for food, gas, and rent have hurt families and young adults, especially those just entering the workforce. Investors are also wary of how long inflation will persist and whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will slow down the economy.
Supply Chain Woes: The pandemic and ongoing global tensions have created major supply chain issues, which in turn have affected prices and product availability. From tech shortages to higher shipping costs, families and businesses have felt the squeeze.
Foreign Policy Concerns: Biden’s foreign policy, especially in the aftermath of the Afghanistan withdrawal, has raised questions about the U.S.’s role on the global stage. The geopolitical fallout could have economic implications—especially if it leads to a reduction in global trade or weakens the dollar’s position.
How These Administrations Affect Your Wallet, Your Work, and Your Future
The policies of Trump and Biden have shaped the 2020s Geopolitical and Economic Shifts, impacting everything from grocery store prices to global investment markets. These 2020s Geopolitical and Economic Shifts are playing a critical role in influencing consumer behavior, job markets, and investment opportunities. Whether you’re an investor seeking new opportunities or an individual trying to balance your monthly budget, these changes in policy have far-reaching real-world effects. Understanding how these 2020s Geopolitical and Economic Shifts are unfolding is essential for navigating the financial future.
For Investors:
Trump's Tax Cuts & Deregulation: Trump’s tax cuts and focus on deregulation helped fuel a strong stock market pre-COVID, especially benefiting corporate America. If you invested in the S&P 500 or certain industries like tech, you saw significant gains.
Biden's Infrastructure and Green Investments: Biden's push for infrastructure and clean energy could drive investment opportunities in these sectors. If you’re an investor, focusing on these areas (like green tech and EV companies) may be a smart move. However, inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes could pose risks to stock market growth in the near term.
S&P 500 Performance Under Trump vs. Biden:
While the S&P 500 performance under each administration reflects overall market health, it also correlates with changes in consumer confidence and spending patterns. The following table shows the relationship between stock market growth and how it influenced family budgets, highlighting the economic environment for each year.
Year | S&P 500 Performance (%) | Consumer Spending Growth (%) | Impact on Family Budgets (Average Spending Increase) |
2017 (Trump) | +19.42% | +3.5% | $1,200 (increase in family spending) |
2018 (Trump) | -6.24% | +2.7% | $900 (slower growth, slight impact) |
2019 (Trump) | +28.88% | +4.1% | $1,400 (strong growth) |
2020 (Trump) | +16.26% | -3.5% | $800 (pandemic impact, lower spending) |
2021 (Biden) | +26.89% | +5.0% | $2,000 (stimulus and recovery) |
2022 (Biden) | -18.11% | +2.5% | $1,100 (inflationary pressures, lower spending) |
2023 (Biden) | +18.35% | +3.0% | $1,300 (moderate growth, but inflation concerns) |
2024 (Biden) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
For Average Families:
Trump's Economic Growth: Before COVID, Trump’s economy was good for many families, with low unemployment and rising wages. If you were working a job, you likely saw more opportunities and better pay.
Biden’s Relief Packages and Inflation Impact: Biden’s stimulus checks helped families survive during the pandemic. However, inflation has eaten into the purchasing power of many households. This means the prices of groceries, gas, and rent have increased, which might impact your monthly budget. It’s a delicate balancing act between recovery and the risk of stagflation (slow economic growth with high inflation).
For Young Adults:
Job Market Fluctuations: The job market is recovering, but not equally across all sectors. Many industries, especially those hit hardest by COVID, have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Young adults entering the workforce face challenges in securing stable, well-paying jobs, though the Biden administration’s focus on green energy and tech could create new opportunities.
Student Debt and Housing Costs: High student debt and rising housing costs continue to be major issues. The Biden administration has tried to address student loan forgiveness, but housing affordability remains a major challenge in many urban areas.
Inflation Trends (2017-2024) Impacting Consumer Spending and Family Budgets:
As inflation fluctuated throughout both the Trump and Biden administrations, it had significant impacts on family budgets. The following table shows how inflation rates influenced consumer spending, and the average spending increases families faced year by year.
Year | Inflation Rate (%) | Consumer Spending Growth (%) | Impact on Family Budgets (Average Spending Increase) |
2017 | 2.1% | +3.0% | $1,000 (modest impact on family budgets) |
2018 | 2.4% | +3.5% | $1,100 (increased spending as inflation rises) |
2019 | 1.8% | +3.7% | $1,150 (moderate impact, low inflation) |
2020 | 1.2% | -3.5% | $800 (pandemic impacts, lower spending) |
2021 | 7.0% | +4.5% | $2,500 (high inflation, stimulus checks) |
2022 | 8.3% | +2.1% | $3,000 (supply chain and cost increases) |
2023 | 6.5% | +3.0% | $2,200 (inflationary pressures persist) |
2024 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Global Tensions, AI, and Bitcoin: What’s Next for Your Future?
The geopolitical landscape is also evolving. As tensions rise between the U.S. and countries like China, Russia, and others, the global economy will continue to shift. The potential rise of AI technology and the increasing prominence of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could lead to new opportunities—or risks.
AI and Automation:
The future job market will be heavily shaped by AI, automation, and digital technologies. While these innovations will lead to increased productivity and efficiency, they will also eliminate certain types of jobs, requiring workers to adapt by acquiring new skills. For young adults entering the job market, these changes will be critical in shaping future career choices.
Bitcoin and Digital Currencies:
The rise of Bitcoin and digital currencies presents new financial opportunities. As the Federal Reserve and other countries explore the potential of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), traditional banking systems may be disrupted. The future of cryptocurrency might offer investment opportunities but also risks as governments continue to regulate this sector.
Conclusion: What Does the Future Hold for You?
The past decade has been shaped by profound economic changes—Trump’s tax cuts, Biden’s recovery initiatives, and a host of other seismic shifts. These changes continue to reverberate, influencing everything from inflation and the job market to the rapid rise of technologies like AI and Bitcoin. The decisions made by both administrations have a lasting impact on your financial future.
As you look ahead, it's important to equip yourself with the right tools and knowledge. Consider subscribing to trusted economic publications, attending financial planning webinars, or using budgeting apps to manage the effects of inflation on your daily life. Staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating this new economic landscape.
The Next Decade: What to Expect for Your Finances and the Global Economy
1-2 Years (2025): The economy may experience a period of stabilization or slowdown. While the job market could continue its recovery, inflation may linger, pressuring family budgets. The Federal Reserve will likely continue raising interest rates to combat inflation, leading to higher mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card debt. Expect stock market volatility as investors assess the future. Geopolitical tensions, particularly with China and Russia, may continue to disrupt global trade.
2-4 Years (2026-2028): The U.S. could enter a more predictable growth cycle. Biden’s infrastructure investments might begin to pay off, creating new jobs in sectors like construction, broadband, and clean energy. However, tensions with China, Russia, and other global players could still cause disruptions. Advancements in AI could spur job growth in tech but also bring the risk of automation. Bitcoin and other digital currencies may see more countries experimenting with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), possibly reshaping the financial landscape.
4-10 Years (2030-2035): Looking further ahead, we’ll likely witness a shift toward a tech-driven, green economy. Clean energy initiatives may reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and industries like electric vehicles, solar power, and AI could dominate. For young adults, this shift could mean new career opportunities but also increased competition for tech-related jobs. However, rising debt and continued geopolitical tensions could impact global trade and investment. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may play an even larger role in the financial system, potentially challenging traditional banking.
Conclusion: What Does the Future Hold for You? (Final Thoughts)
The economic shifts we’ve seen over the past decade—like tax policies, recovery efforts, and the rise of emerging technologies—will continue to impact your financial trajectory. To navigate these challenges, staying informed and proactive is essential.
In the coming years, it’s critical for individuals of all ages, especially young adults, to understand how global and national economic trends, policy decisions, and emerging technologies will affect their finances. This article offers just a glimpse into what’s ahead; the real work begins with your active engagement in these issues.
"The future depends on what we do in the present." — Mahatma Gandhi
Our actions today—whether it's making smart investments, adjusting budgets to cope with inflation, or keeping an eye on global geopolitics—will directly shape the future. The next decade brings both challenges and opportunities, and staying ahead of the curve is more important than ever. Whether you’re interested in personal finance, global trade, or cutting-edge technologies, understanding these shifts will help you build a better future.
Take action now: Educate yourself, plan wisely, and prepare for the opportunities ahead.
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Brandon | Forward & Thrive January 8, 2025
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